BACKGROUND: Considering the rates of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients and the cost-effectiveness of their preventing treatments, identification of CHF patients at risk is an important challenge. In this work, we studied the prognostic performance of the combination of an index potentially related to dispersion of repolarization restitution (Deltaalpha), an index quantifying T-wave alternans (IAA) and the slope of heart rate turbulence (TS) for classification of SCD and PFD. METHODS: Holter ECG recordings of 597 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled in the MUSIC study were analyzed and Deltaalpha, IAA and TS were obtained. A strategy was implemented using support vector machines (SVM) to classify patients in three groups: SCD victims, PFD victims and other patients (the latter including survivors and victims of non-cardiac causes). Cross-validation was used to evaluate the performance of the implemented classifier. RESULTS: Deltaalpha and IAA, dichotomized at 0.035 (dimensionless) and 3.73 muV, respectively, were the ECG markers most strongly associated with SCD, while TS, dichotomized at 2.5 ms/RR, was the index most strongly related to PFD. When separating SCD victims from the rest of patients, the individual marker with best performance was Deltaalpha>/=0.035, which, for a fixed specificity (Sp) of 90%, showed a sensitivity (Se) value of 10%, while the combination of Deltaalpha and IAA increased Se to 18%. For separation of PFD victims from the rest of patients, the best individual marker was TS </= 2.5 ms/RR, which, for Sp=90%, showed a Se of 26%, this value being lower than Se=34%, produced by the combination of Deltaalpha and TS. Furthermore, when performing SVM classification into the three reported groups, the optimal combination of risk markers led to a maximum Sp of 79% (Se=18%) for SCD and Sp of 81% (Se=14%) for PFD. CONCLUSIONS: The results shown in this work suggest that it is possible to efficiently discriminate SCD and PFD in a population of CHF patients using ECG-derived risk markers like Deltaalpha, TS and IAA.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an irregular heart rhythm due to disorganized atrial electrical activity, often sustained by rotational drivers called rotors. In the present work, we sought to characterize and discriminate whether simulated single stable rotors are located in the pulmonary veins (PVs) or not, only by using non-invasive signals (i.e., the 12-lead ECG). Several features have been extracted from the signals, such as Hjort descriptors, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), and principal component analysis. All the extracted features have shown significant discriminatory power, with particular emphasis to the RQA parameters. A decision tree classifier achieved 98.48% accuracy, 83.33% sensitivity, and 100% specificity on simulated data. Clinical relevance— This study might guide ablation proce- dures, suggesting doctors to proceed directly in some patients with a pulmonary veins isolation, and avoiding the prior use of an invasive atrial mapping system.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequent irregular heart rhythm due to disorganized atrial electrical activity, often sustained by rotational drivers called rotors. The non-invasive localization of AF drivers can lead to improved personalized ablation strategy, suggesting pulmonary vein (PV) isolation or more complex extra- PV ablation procedures in case the driver is on other atrial regions. We used a Machine Learning approach to characterize and discriminate simulated single stable rotors (1R) location: PVs, left atrium (LA) excluding the PVs, and right atrium (RA), utilizing solely non-invasive signals (i.e., the 12-lead ECG). 1R episodes sustaining AF were simulated. 128 features were extracted from the signals. Greedy forward algorithm was implemented to select the best feature set which was fed to a decision tree classifier with hold-out cross-validation technique. All tested features showed significant discriminatory power, especially those based on recurrence quantification analysis (up to 80.9% accuracy with single feature classification). The decision tree classifier achieved 89.4% test accuracy with 18 features on simulated data, with sensitivities of 93.0%, 82.4%, and 83.3% for RA, LA, and PV classes, respectively. Our results show that a machine learning approach can potentially identify the location of 1R sustaining AF using the 12-lead ECG.